Digital tools: invaluable decision-making aids for natural hazard management
Digitization is a reality in many fields. This is also the case for natural hazard management, which must rely on data from the field to predict and make decisions. In this highly important sector for the Valais, digitization takes the form of decision support for specialists. The data collected must be reliable, available in large quantities and interpretable by professionals. This is what emerged from the online discussion table organized in early November by CREALP, the Canton of Valais and CimArk as part of the Swiss Digital Days. Around thirty people from all walks of life and professions took part in the debates.
"In particular, digitization enables us to address three essential questions: how we use nature, how we protect it and how we protect ourselves. It is in this triangular relationship that digitization takes on its full importance," explained Bettina Schaefli, Professor of Hydrology at the University of Berne, in her introduction to the discussions. There are, however, many challenges to mastering digitalization. The first is technical. The reliability of the data collected in the various natural environments is extremely important. Without this reliability, it is difficult to do anything and to be relevant when making decisions.
The illusion of zero risk
The other key point is the speed and availability of digital services. Ideally, measurements should be continuous. The ability to act quickly can really make a difference in emergency situations. But with digitalization so pervasive, there can be the illusion of zero risk. We think we have everything under control, because we have so much data. This is a dangerous belief, and one that was highlighted by participants at the discussion tables.
Behind this notion of zero risk also lies that of responsibility. Whether natural hazard monitoring systems are automated or not, whether they are carried out by a computer or a human, the question of who takes responsibility remains. Who assumes responsibility if the result is not the one predicted by the machine, or if the decision taken on the basis of the data turns out to be the wrong one?
Stay humble, even when designing digital tools
So how do we set an "acceptable" risk? How much leeway do we have with regard to "false positives" and "false negatives"? The important thing is to remain humble. This means recognizing that we can't control, know or predict everything, and this must also be reflected in the digital tools we develop.
However, since the floods of 2000, which left their mark on the Valais region, great progress has been made. "Digitalization in the 21st century represents one of the most important tools for forecasting. Without digital technology, flood forecasting would have been much more limited", emphasized Antonio Abellan, Director of CREALP. However, the implementation of a completely automated system, with no human intervention, remains unrealistic. "Digital tools must be seen as an aid to decision-making, while the sensitivity of the terrain and the intuition of specialists remain indispensable", reminded Raphaël Mayoraz, Valais cantonal geologist, during the discussions. In his view, there is of course a strong interest in understanding how the tools make their calculations, so as to be able to interpret the results even better. In this context, artificial intelligence and the intelligent use of data seem particularly relevant to the management of natural hazards.
What about data access?
Digitization also raises the question of access to data. In the field of natural hazards, and perhaps unlike other areas such as health, data could be useful to everyone. The prerequisite would be to have a global platform, for example at cantonal level, which allows data to be deposited and also downloaded. "The availability of data sometimes leaves room for unprofessional interpretation. This is particularly the case on social networks. It's important to remember that only specialists will be able to give real meaning to the data collected", says Raphaël Mayoraz.
The involvement of the population, as suppliers of everyday data, is also important in order to obtain a large amount of data. It's also a question of whether, ethically speaking, it's possible to "make" the population work to gather information on natural phenomena. And what will people gain from sharing data and information? This question will also have to be answered to maximize the amount of data.
Exciting discussion tables throughout the Valais
This panel discussion was organized as part of the Swiss Digital Days. On November 2 and 3, the Canton of Valais, together with various partners, organized no fewer than eight tables similar to the one on natural hazards. The aim was to raise awareness of the potential of digitalization and, above all, to involve the population in the debate. The impassioned discussions at the natural hazards table showed that the objective had been achieved. It now remains to be seen how best to deploy digitalization in this sector. To be continued.
Source: The Ark Foundation
